Anatol Lieven, the British author, thinks Pakistan is a hard country. Life is indeed hard for millions of Pakistanis who spend a lifetime hovering around the poverty line.
While Pakistan is a hard place to live in, it is even harder to govern.
Economists and political scientists offer myriad reasons why that seems to be the case. There is, however, a simpler explanation: Irrational expectations.
Politicians help raise irrational explanations by making promises that they cannot possibly keep. At the same time, the public expects the world from the government with no regards for who will fund the services and products they expect from the government.
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The vicious cycle of raising expectations and the inability to meet those makes Pakistan a hard, and at times, impossible place to govern. Irrational expectations must meet a rational end for the longevity and the stability of political tenures in Pakistan.
Promising immediate relief from chronic power shortages is a quintessential example of the ruling elite raising hopes and expectations of the masses, while knowing that they lack the capacity to deliver on those promises.
Raja Pervez Ashraf, former PPP minister responsible for power, was notorious for setting unrealistic deadlines to end power shortages in Pakistan. Later in his tenure, his press conferences offered comic relief because no one took his announcements to end the power outages seriously.
Jamaat-i-Islami has also been a master of raising irrational expectations. Since the Jamaat has always been a laggard in electoral politics, it has never been at a risk of winning elections and ultimately forming the government. It could, therefore, promise the moon to the electorate in its manifesto including raising the minimum wage, which has always been a central piece of its campaign strategy.
The Jamaat never bothered to explain to the masses how it planned to enforce the minimum wages standards in the private sector where most minimum wage employment has been concentrated.
The Jamaat's promises raise irrational expectations among the masses who expect the same from the victorious parties. Such unrealistic expectations among the masses contribute to political unrest, which at times, have ended up in a military coup.
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The masses are also not without fault.
They expect the public sector to deliver all jobs and opportunities even when the private sector offers better employment prospects.
They expect the waste to be collected from the streets even when they do not pay the municipal taxes.
They want high-paying jobs even when they lack skill and education.
They want uninterrupted power supply even when they steal electricity.
Moreover, they want to be governed by honest politicians even when their own finances are laced with the bribes they have extorted from the poor and hapless.
The recent furor over the Metro in Rawalpindi is another example of irrational expectations.
The government is at fault for promising to deliver the project within an unrealistically tight deadline.
The government is further at fault for promising to deliver it on the cheap, while being aware of the fact that the cost overruns are common for megaprojects.
The masses are guilty of expecting a project of such magnitude and complexity will be completed in a short period. The news media is guilty of assuming that such delays and cost overruns do not occur elsewhere.
Cost overruns and construction delays are in fact a common occurrence for megaprojects.
Bent Flyvbjerg, a professor of management at the Oxford University, has spent over two decades documenting the challenges with the construction of major infrastructure projects, such as bridges, tunnels, and metros. In Megaprojects and Risk, an Anatomy of Ambition, a book he co-authored with two others, Professor Flyvbjerg points out that more often than not the proponents of major transport projects hide the true cost of the project to avoid the sticker price shock.
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In addition, they overstate the economic and other benefits of the proposed projects. Once completed, the true costs are known that are often significantly higher than the forecasted costs. In addition, projects are delayed and once built, they attract fewer demand than what had been forecasted earlier.
The German train projects, bridges in Europe, and the famed Chunnel project are examples of celebrated transport projects that ran significantly over budget. An informed and mature electorate reacts to such violations responsibly.
The electorate does not fall for irrational expectations.
Take the example of a 5-km Metro extension from Montreal to Laval. The project was approved for $200 million. Once completed, the construction cost the taxpayers almost a billion dollar. The Auditor General of Quebec wrote a scathing report in which she identified the shortcomings of those responsible for the project that cost the taxpayers five times more than the budgeted amount.
Last week a similar subway extension in Toronto saw two executives fired over an estimated $400 million cost overrun and a multi-year delay in project completion.
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A smart electorate differs from the one lacking the smarts in several ways. For one, the smart electorate does not fall for false promises and raises irrational expectations.
Either a smart electorate defeats the exaggerators at the polls or if it believes in their promises, it allows them to govern until the next elections when they make smart choices to undo the harm done in the last iteration.
Governing Pakistan will not be an easy gig for years to come. It can though be a manageable task if the masses and the politicians avoid raising irrational expectations.