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Is it possible to spot the lone wolf terrorist before they attack?

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In a post 9/11 world, the traditional narrative of the War on Terror focused on poverty, ignorance and limited exposure to the world as the basis of extremism.

But cases like that of Daniel Pearl’s murderer Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, New York Bomber Shehzad Ahmed, Sabeen Mahmud's killer Saad Aziz and now Tashfeen Malik, seem to be changing the paradigm.

Also read: Our religion problem

There is a growing body of research in the US on the phenomena of terrorism. While initial focus was on organisations like the self-styled Islamic State (IS) and Al Qaeda, there is now a growing interest in 'Lone Wolf' incidents, with President Obama calling this phenomenon the ‘biggest threat to US security’.

In this paradigm, people like Tashfeen Malik are the rule, not the exception.

By definition a Lone Wolf is a single male who commits acts of violence for political reasons. But the definition is quickly evolving to include individuals helped by associates (Beta Wolf).

Timothy McVeigh, the Oklahoma city bomber is a classic case, who was helped by his associate Terry Nichols. Tashfeen Malik and her husband's attack can arguably be declared a lone wolf incident. The research points out some stark similarities in the nature of these attackers.

It's personal

Lone wolves often have troubled childhoods or have suffered from traumatic episodes that impair their emotional well-being during early childhood. Timothy McVeigh was frequently bullied in school; his parents had a troubled relationship and he had to drop out of school because he was unable to adjust. 'Unabomber' Ted Kaczynsky had an abusive father and failed to fit in with his other classmates.

Tashfeen Malik's father, too, had a distraught relationship with his family. Syed Farook's mother got a divorce from his father, citing his alcoholism and abusive nature as reasons. In Pakistan, the reported cases of child molestation or physical abuse in homes or learning centres are often unreported, but they can help as valuable insight into the terrorist mindset.

Lone wolves may feel grieved against the society, community, government or a group of individuals responsible for what they have gone through. Major Nidal Hasan, the Fort Hood shooter, was disturbed by the US involvement in the Middle East and his efforts to get out of the US Army.

Timothy McVeigh had troubles adjusting in the US once he returned from a tour of the Gulf. In the case of Syed Farook, the attacks were made on the centre where he had once worked, and his infuriation may have been caused by any incident that he may have perceived as a personal insult or injustice.

Limited social proclivity

Lone wolves like to stay alone or in small friend circles. They are not sociopaths per se, which means they have a heightened sense of empathy for others. Not surprisingly, they are often termed as the 'nice guy' by people around them.

Major Nidal Hasan and Faisal Shehzad were observed to be quiet, polite and pretty normal members of society. Reports of Tashfeen Malik being reserved, isolated and socially aloof strengthen the personality type of a lone wolf.

Radicalisation process

It is simplistic to assume that a terrorist gets up one day and decides to blow himself up.

The case studies of all terrorists highlight a radicalisation course that often spans years. The process comprises of various stages that can happen in a sequence or parallel to each other. Timothy McVeigh, after his retirement, spent years writing letters and joining activities that depict his radicalisation process.

Major Hasan Nidal and Faisal Shehzad slowly grew more religious and explored higher degrees of conformity to their set of beliefs. Tashfeen Malik also seems to have become increasingly radicalised over the span of years.

Need for cognitive closure

These people are often perplexed by the complexity that they see in the world around them and desire for certainty, order and purpose in a life that seems increasingly disorganised.

They start seeing the world in black and white instead of considering all the grey areas while the distinction between good and bad becomes starkly clear in their eyes.

Most of these terrorists are able to dehumanise their targets, feeling little or no remorse for their acts. Timothy McVeigh, Yigal Amir and Nidal Hasan vowed the sanctity of their cause even after being consulted by psychologists. For the likes of Tashfeen Malik, there are only two kinds of people: Enemies of Allah, and Armies of Allah.

Political reasons

Terrorism is ultimately a political stance. The attacks on abortion clinics in the US were conducted because they were thought to be a threat to certain values.

Timothy McVeigh saw himself as the sole defender of the American freedom against the Big Government, Yigal Amir was against the Oslo peace accord and the perceived deviation of the Israeli government from Judaic principles.

Muslim extremists like Tashfeen Malik, Shehzad Ahmed and others essentially see western secularism and US imperialism as threats to their Islamic values.

Broadcasting intent

Lone wolves may be physically isolated from the world, they nevertheless reach out to people through statements, letters, blogs, comments, posts, videos or wills. Timothy McVeigh, Ramzi Yousuf, Tashfeen Malik all left footsteps that can be traced back to their violent intent either before or after the attack.

Tashfeen Malik’s post on Facebook and the British train stabber’s shout “For Syria” are clear examples of their intents to be identified with a cause.

Affinity with extremist groups

While lone wolves may act on their own behalf, they often adhere to a mainstream extremists group for ideological support. From white supremacists, zionist zealots, Islamic extremists to anti-abortionists; a lone wolf is inspired, connected and motivated by a network of hate mechanism that may not be directly involved in his final act of violence.

Also read: Pakistan ranks third on Global Terrorism Index

He adheres to a group, often tries to become a part of it but is either shunned by the group or decides to stay aloof for practical considerations. The rise of internet and the plethora of social networks are providing the perfect platforms for these extremists to join the group of their choice, often engaging in dialogue, training and declaration of loyalty.

Tashfeen Malik and Syed Farook were inspired by the IS and only time will reveal what was the extent of their involvement with the group.

Enablers

Lone wolves are either assisted by people who have no idea what they are going to do, or directly by the preachers who motivate them to do the task.

For white supremacists, the most frequent enabler was William Pierce and internet personality Alex Jones. For Muslim lone wolves, Al Qaeda ideologues like Ayman al-Zawahiri, Anwar Awlaki, and currently Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi represent the enablers.

Reports claim that Lal Masjid cleric or any other cleric’s association with Tashfeen Malik is still unknown, which may give further insight into who might have been the enabler in this case.

Trigger events

Years of radicalisation is finally distilled in a triggering event that prompts the terrorist to carry out his plans. A trigger may be a one-off event or a series of escalations. They may be political or personal in nature. For Timothy McVeigh, Waco incident was the trigger, for Major Nidal Hasan, his failed resignation attempt was the trigger, for Yigal Amir it was the Oslo accord.

In case of Muslim lone wolves, US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq has frequently become the basis of their terrorism-related activities. It is not clear what triggered Syed Farook or Tashfeen Malik, but hopefully in time we will find out.

Western governments, society and academia is working together to understand the problem of 'Lone Wolf" terrorism. But their efforts are often plagued by their inability to understand the nuances of Muslim social and religious life.

For Pakistan, the situation is even bleaker. In fighting the black-and-white doctrine of the terrorists, our society has come up with a narrative that is as two dimensional as the one it is trying to fight. Terrorists are demonised and portrayed as an embodiment of evil, while governments and LEAs are hailed as symbols of everything good in the world.

Terrorism is a societal problem, not an individual one. It is only the tip of the iceberg, supported by a wide base of extremist opinions and hate ideologies and mechanisms.

An individual often travels through an increasing level of hatred and extremism, ultimately reaching the apex point. Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy, in one of his recent articles, highlighted how academic research in Pakistan has been all about producing meaningless data.

If any solution is to be found, psychologists, sociologists, religious experts and security analysts would need to work together to find out the patterns, trends and dynamics that promote extremism in our society. Only then can we hope to provide a society to our children that is much better than the one we grew up in.


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