 |
After an explosive month-long carnival of general elections, a wave of anticipation has swept India as it braces for the results on May 16.
Which party will emerge with the largest vote-share? What will the next government look like? These pertinent questions form the crux of all political debates taking place in social gatherings across rural and urban India at present.
At stake is India’s future.
Over the last few years, India’s middle and lower classes, and the poor, have been severely stung by perceived government apathy, rising prices of essential commodities, lack of employment opportunities and rampant corruption.
Fuelling public anger has been a volatile mix of multi-billion dollar scams and weak governance, which has sparked a crisis of legitimacy and policy paralysis at multiple levels.
Owing to this, the prevailing sentiment of disillusionment with the existing state of affairs is shared by millions of Indian voters, cutting across regional, religious and socio-economic divides.
A significant share of the votes cast this time around, feel several analysts, is expected to reflect these frustrations and translate into an anti-incumbency wave.
Also read: Manifestos and reality: Analysing Indian Elections promises
If this is, indeed a vote of hope and expectation, the incoming government has its work cut out.
Undoubtedly, improving economic growth, containing rising unemployment, curbing corruption, resolving gridlock in infrastructure, manufacturing and real estate, expediting the formulation and implementation of welfare policies, and boosting bilateral and multilateral diplomatic relationsare going to be part of its central agenda. However, many of these action items require political consensus, and hence the need for a strong and stable ruling party.
It is clear that the contours of the new government — whether or not a coalition — would play a vital role in resolving India’s pressing concerns.
The latest exit polls project a comfortable victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its PM candidate, Narendra Modi, and a worst-ever performance for the Congress party. However, history shows that exit polls have more often than not proven to be wrong, and their accuracy is suspect especially in a complex country like India.
Also read: Brand Modi, so shiny
Consider this: This year witnessed 814 million voters — including 150 million youth electors — casting their ballots in nine-phases across 543 constituencies. Add to this the multiple factors that affect the poll choices of the masses — caste and religion, underdevelopment; and individual charisma of contestants and parties — and the equation of results becomes mindboggling.
There is, however, a general acceptance of the fact that this time around, the votes have been split between the BJP, Congress, the debutant Aam Aadmi Party and strong regional parties.
Independent ground reports suggest that the two national parties are facing tough competition from the regional satraps.
Also read: 545 faces, not 3: Where the Indian elections went wrong
The Congress seems to have missed the bus owing to its perceived inability to tackle corruption, inflation and misgovernance. On the other hand, BJP’s election bandwagon has been largely driven by Narendra Modi, who despite mustering impressive support base, has been unable to wipe off the taint of 2002 Gujarat riots.
Due to this, regional parties — who are expected to strengthen their strongholds and emerge as crucial allies — may be caught in a dilemma over whether or not to support a Modi-led BJP government, in case the latter fails to clinch the magic figure of 272 seats.
Then there is the Aam Aadmi Party, which has received significant public attention but is not expected to fare significantly well at the national stage.
In all probability, India’s tryst with coalition politics is likely to continue.
The contest to form the next government will not merely be a BJP vs Congress fight, but a National Democratic Alliance vs United Progressive Alliance slugfest — and the outcome would hinge on the regional parties.
Would they extend support to a corruption-ridden, scam-tainted Congress-backed UPA to avoid being associated with the BJP’s right-wing majoritarian credentials?
Or would they choose to embrace a bolder, stronger BJP-led NDA despite its misgivings?
No matter which way the wind blows, it is clear that the 2014 polls will mark a victory of the regional parties, who will enjoy a more substantial bargaining power with the ruling party.
But in this absence of a strong fulcrum of power, would good governance be a casualty?
May 16 holds the answers.