Dear Sir,
I am not a PTI supporter.
I am a son of the soil, who left our motherland, many years ago to pursue higher education abroad.
Over those years, I have had the opportunity to work as an economist at various institutions, including Goldman Sachs International, where I was part of the team which worked on the BRICs and Next-11 report.
In the current political scenario, I couldn't help but comment on the significance of the latter report and its findings on Pakistan economy.
The report scientifically projects the economic activity of some of the most populous countries in the world, including Pakistan. And as your government itself proudly observed, the report concludes that with the right policy framework and institutions, Pakistan could potentially count itself as one of the top 20 countries in the world by 2050.
Since 2006-07, when the report was published, Pakistan’s economic growth has averaged 3.9 per cent per annum, compared to 6.2 per cent for the overall emerging markets peer-group (source: IMF). Countries such as India, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri lanka, Nigeria and Bangladesh have fared much better when assessed on ability to generate sustained economic progress.
All in all, the reality for Pakistan, so far has been significantly worse than the dream.
Also read:IMF lifts growth forecast for Pakistan
Maintaining the right set of conditions for growth is a critical factor in any country’s search to deliver its potential. A key part of these growth generating conditions are; rule of law, incidence of corruption, infrastructure and education.
Using World Bank data to calibrate these growth-enabling dimensions (compiled by Goldman Sachs in a December 2013 report), the numbers for Pakistan make an abject reading.
For instance, it appears that Pakistan’s growth environment score has hardly moved since 1997, while countries noted above have registered sizeable gains.
Indeed, comparing Pakistan with relevant groups, scores are now closer to African countries such as Sudan, Rwanda and Swaziland rather than regional peers such as India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, which appear to have broken new ground in terms of developing growth-enhancing conditions.
What the above statistics show is that Pakistan's sharp fall in economic fortunes (both in absolute and relative terms) has identifiable drivers, many of which relate to the policy framework and its appropriate execution.
For instance, Pakistan’s spending on education is one of the lowest in the world. While negative factors such as corruption are near the other side of the scale.
Mr Prime Minister, the consequences leading on from this abysmal economic performance are clear: high unemployment rates, severe social hardships and widespread uncertainty in general.
No wonder the sentiment of strong discontent is increasing exponentially, and being amplified across a highly interconnected/globalised world.
Indeed, the nation’s ambitions/dreams are being shaped by global dynamics as much as local. The glaring lack of opportunities to express our diverse talents is particularly distressing.
Take a look:Market nosedives on political deadlock
It's true, sir, that when your party took office in 2013, Pakistan faced an imminent balance-of-payment crisis, (which could have led to even sharper economic hardship). But the grievances now widely on display have deeper roots in the years of poor progress in a rapidly changing world.
At this juncture, the utter disconnect between the government and the nation is palpable.
If there was at least a vision, it sparks hope that the situation will turn around for the better, for the future generations if not ours.
But instead, the only vision here seems to be based on nepotism, rising inequality and instances of bad policy choices.
For example, the financial conduct of the PML-N government remains shrouded in mystery when it comes to large-scale investment projects, opening the government to allegations of corruption and misconduct. Day-to-day realities remain unchanged for many. This has led to even more disillusionment, when you notice how other countries are turning the corner in terms of public-sector transparency standards.
All that is not to say your government has not taken any positive steps at all towards changing the country’s course, since it came into power last year. The strong and visible support enjoyed by Shahbaz Sharif in Punjab is testament to the positive dynamic that the public knows how to reward progress.
In addition, I and many others understand and appreciate the tangible steps being taken by the government in re-building the power infrastructure, despite the opposition’s claims (which are feeding on the lack of transparency).
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However, sir, the young population of Pakistan has strong aspirations and ambitions. But the disastrous economic run and poor law and order have wreaked tremendous havoc besides creating a scared mindset, sucking away all our positivity.
We need a leader who is willing to go beyond the incremental steps and take a quantum leap, within a transparent democratic set-up where all voices are heard.
To me and to millions of others, Imran Khan is not that leader. But the question we have is: Are you?